jueves, 19 de abril de 2012
PIMCO: España se parece a una economía emergente
Spain, the G20 Economy that Resembles an Emerging Market.Article Comments (2) MarketBeat HOME PAGE ».EmailPrintTwitter Digg + More close StumbleUponMySpacedel.icio.usRedditLinkedInFarkViadeoOrkut Text By Javier E. David BloombergIn theory, higher yields are supposed to lure investors with the prospect of meaty returns. Yet in Spain’s case, Andrew Balls, head of European investment at bond giant PIMCO sees the opposite effect in play. “Spain is like an emerging market economy borrowing in a foreign currency; its high yields drive people out rather than drawing them in,” Balls says. Because of high unemployment, sluggish growth and a large debt overhang, Balls says the problem facing euro zone’s fourth largest economy is less about interest rate risk than credit risk – which is sending investors stampeding to the exits. “If [investors] want credit risk, there are better alternatives than Spain or Italy.” Another deterrent is the scattershot and contradictory impulses of European policymakers, which Balls joked in an interview resembled “a great big family squabble… you look for better opportunities elsewhere until they can sort out these issues.” Unlike Greece and Portugal, Spain isn’t functionally bankrupt, but being yoked to a currency it can’t depreciate doesn’t help matters much, according to Balls. “Spain isn’t insolvent, but they don’t have their own currency and a big gap between nominal yields and growth” that gets worse the higher its bond yields soar, he added. “If that’s not stopped over time, it morphs into solvency problem.” Little wonder that market tensions are so high ahead of Thursday’s bond auction. EUR/USD hovers near unchanged at $1.3129.